The Choice: IPv4 Exhaustion or Transition to IPv6

Fri Jun 29 15:04:52 UTC 2007

[ As it is Friday: IPv4 doomsday clock: http://penrose.uk6x.com/ ]

Christian Kuhtz wrote:
> If you want to emulate IPv4 and destroy the DFZ, yes, this is trivial.
> And you should go ahead and plan that migration.
> 
> As you well known, one of the core assumptions of IPv6 is that the DFZ policy
> stay intact, ostensibly to solve a very specific scaling problem.
> 
> So, go ahead and continue talking about migration while ignoring the very
> policies within which that is permitted to take place and don't let me
interrupt that ranting.

Actually the policies that are in place at the various RIR's are still
quite strict as not every endsite that actually would want to get
address space can apparently get it (In ARIN you need >/22 IPv4 for
instance and some other rules). These policies have been chosen by their
membership, or did you not agree with these policies? If you don't raise
that on ppml at .

Nevertheless, even if everybody could get a prefix with ease, then it
would still not become a big problem quickly as several routing vendors
have already announced that they are currently able to handle 2M routes
in their current gear. I know that is only a factor 10 over IPv4
(assuming 200k routes) but that is quite a bit of time we have have left
before that fills up completely. Note also that IPv6 only has 800 routes
at the moment, compare that to the 200k in IPv6. This definitely has to
grow quite a bit still, but I would not be surprised if it sticks below
50k with ease for the coming years.

When we do really reach the maximums of that hardware though, we are
down the road another 10 years. In that timeframe, id/loc mechanisms
will have hopefully been developed and also nicely been made available
to a lot of hard/software around the world.

[..]
> Sent from my BlackBerry.      

I guess NANOG is really important ;)

Now if that line would contain "Sent from my pico computer that I built
myself" or something in that area, or then at least added something like
".. as I am in the pub, not working and drinking beer", then I would
like it quite a bit more ;)

Greets,
 Jeroen

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