Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a day, continuously?

Sat Jan 13 11:45:31 UTC 2007

On Jan 13, 2007, at 6:12 AM, Marshall Eubanks wrote:

>
>
> On Jan 12, 2007, at 11:27 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
>
>>
>> On Fri, 12 Jan 2007, Gian Constantine wrote:
>>
>>> I am pretty sure we are not becoming a VoD world. Linear  
>>> programming is much better for advertisers. I do not think  
>>> content providers, nor consumers, would prefer a VoD only  
>>> service. A handful of consumers would love it, but many would not.
>>
>> My experience is that when you show people VoD, they like it. A  
>> lot of people won't abandon linear programming because it's easy  
>> to just watch whatever is "on", but if you give them the  
>> possibility of watching VoD (DVD sales of TV series for instance)  
>> some will definately start doing both. Same thing with HDTV, until  
>> you show it to people they couldn't care less, but when you've  
>> shown them they do start to get interested.
>>
>> I have been trying to find out the advertising ARPU for the cable  
>> companies for a prime time TV show in the US, ie how much would I  
>> need to pay them to get the same content but without the  
>> advertising, and then add the cost of VoD delivery. This is purely  
>> theoretical, but it would give a rough indication on what a VoD  
>> distribution model might cost the end user if we were to add that  
>> distribution channel. Does anyone know any rough figures for  
>> advertising ARPU per hour on
>> primetime? I'd love to hear it.
>
> Generally, in the US, the content is sent to the cable company with  
> Ads already inserted, although they might get their own Ad slots.  
> You would need to talk to the source, i.e., the network. Since you  
> would be threatening the business model of their major customers,  
> you would need patience and a lot of financial backing.
>
> For the US, an analysis by Kenneth Wilbur
> http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=885465   , table  
> 1, from this recent meeting in DC
> http://www.web.virginia.edu/media/agenda.html
>
> shows that the cost per thousand per ad (the CPM) averaged over 5  
> networks and all nights of the week, was $ 24 +- 9; these
> are 1/2 minute ads. The mean ad level per half-hour is 5.15  
> minutes, so that's 10.3 x $ 24 or $ 247 / hour / 1000. This

Sorry, that should be

per half-hour

(i.e., there are 10.3 half-minute ads per half-hour on average.)

> is for the evening; rates and audiences at other times or less. So,  
> for a 1/2 hour evening show, on average the VOD would need to cost  
> at least $ 0.12 US to re-coup the ad revenues. Popular shows get a  
> higher CPM, so they would cost

So that should be  $ 0.25 per half hour per person.

I think that the advertising world needs a more "metric" system of  
measuring things and that I need some coffee.

> more. The Wilbur paper and some of the other papers at this  
> conference present a lot of breakdown of these sorts of statistics,  
> if you are interested.
>
> Regards
> Marshall
>

Regards

>>
>> -- 
>> Mikael Abrahamsson    email: swmike at swm.pp.se
>