Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a day, continuously?

Marshall Eubanks tme at multicasttech.com
Sat Jan 13 11:12:10 UTC 2007


On Jan 12, 2007, at 11:27 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:

>
> On Fri, 12 Jan 2007, Gian Constantine wrote:
>
>> I am pretty sure we are not becoming a VoD world. Linear  
>> programming is much better for advertisers. I do not think content  
>> providers, nor consumers, would prefer a VoD only service. A  
>> handful of consumers would love it, but many would not.
>
> My experience is that when you show people VoD, they like it. A lot  
> of people won't abandon linear programming because it's easy to  
> just watch whatever is "on", but if you give them the possibility  
> of watching VoD (DVD sales of TV series for instance) some will  
> definately start doing both. Same thing with HDTV, until you show  
> it to people they couldn't care less, but when you've shown them  
> they do start to get interested.
>
> I have been trying to find out the advertising ARPU for the cable  
> companies for a prime time TV show in the US, ie how much would I  
> need to pay them to get the same content but without the  
> advertising, and then add the cost of VoD delivery. This is purely  
> theoretical, but it would give a rough indication on what a VoD  
> distribution model might cost the end user if we were to add that  
> distribution channel. Does anyone know any rough figures for  
> advertising ARPU per hour on
> primetime? I'd love to hear it.

Generally, in the US, the content is sent to the cable company with  
Ads already inserted, although they might get their own Ad slots. You  
would need to talk to the source, i.e., the network. Since you would  
be threatening the business model of their major customers, you would  
need patience and a lot of financial backing.

For the US, an analysis by Kenneth Wilbur
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=885465   , table  
1, from this recent meeting in DC
http://www.web.virginia.edu/media/agenda.html

shows that the cost per thousand per ad (the CPM) averaged over 5  
networks and all nights of the week, was $ 24 +- 9; these
are 1/2 minute ads. The mean ad level per half-hour is 5.15 minutes,  
so that's 10.3 x $ 24 or $ 247 / hour / 1000. This is for the  
evening; rates and audiences at other times or less. So, for a 1/2  
hour evening show, on average the VOD would need to cost at least $  
0.12 US to re-coup the ad revenues. Popular shows get a higher CPM,  
so they would cost more. The Wilbur paper and some of the other  
papers at this conference present a lot of breakdown of these sorts  
of statistics, if you are interested.

Regards
Marshall

>
> -- 
> Mikael Abrahamsson    email: swmike at swm.pp.se




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