Internet Video: The Next Wave of Massive Disruption to the US Peer ing Ecosystem (v1.2)

Tue Jan 9 18:11:31 UTC 2007

> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-nanog at merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog at merit.edu] On 
> Behalf Of Fergie
> Sent: Tuesday, January 09, 2007 9:38 AM
> To: bill.norton at gmail.com
> Cc: nanog at merit.edu
> Subject: Re: Internet Video: The Next Wave of Massive 
> Disruption to the US Peer ing Ecosystem (v1.2)
> 
> 
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> 
> Hi Bill,
> 
> Just as an observation, it appears to me (at least) that the
> most popular method of video distribution today is via GooTube. :-)
> 
> I think it remains to be seen that that model will actually change
> dramatically to more of a "semi- real-time" model, regardless of
> the desires (or fears) of various vendors or operators.
> 
> $.02,
> 
> - - ferg
> 

GooTube mostly carries the bottom 5% of the content (apologies to the
GooTubers on the list).
I think this discussion is going towards the content that one would
**actually** like to see. I understand there are people that don't watch
TV at all. I am not one of them. I have had a Tivo since when they first
came out. The problem that I see is that the product pipeline for how TV
content should be distributed and watched got constipated mostly due to
the pressure from the content owners (possibly justified).

The big change is that when storing content and distributing content
goes down to asymptotically free,
then the rules of the game change completely. No one said that this
mystical box will replace live TV, what it would do is to replace the
premium content on live TV with something more robust, with infinite
selection (ok, near infinite selection). This will also make the market
more competitive. 

>From an SP perspective, I don't think the SPs have a choice. All they
can do IMHO, is to move from the current model to the new model, or
perish. I don't think content filtering is going to catch up with this
type of content distribution anytime soon.

Let's see what Jobs has in the pipeline with AppleTV announced today at
Macworld. That 40GB hard drive looks very suspicious to me ;)

Regards

Bora