Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a day, continuously?

Tue Jan 9 00:27:08 UTC 2007

Well, yes. My view on this subject is U.S.-centric. In fairness to  
me, this is NANOG, not AFNOG or EuroNOG or SANOG.

I would also argue storage and distribution costs are not  
asymptotically zero with scale. Well designed SANs are not cheap.  
Well designed distribution systems are not cheap. While price does  
decrease when scaled upwards, the cost of such an operation remains  
hefty, and increases with additions to the offered content library  
and a swelling of demand for this content. I believe the graph  
becomes neither asymptotic, nor anywhere near zero.

You are correct on the long tail nature of music. But music is not  
consumed in a similar manner as TV and movies. Television and movies  
involve a little more commitment and attention. Music is more for the  
moment and the mood. There is an immediacy with music consumption.  
Movies and television require a slight degree more patience from the  
consumer. The freshness (debatable :-) ) of new release movies and TV  
can often command the required patience from the consumer. Older  
content rarely has the same pull.

I agree there is a market for ethnic and niche content, but it is not  
the broad market many companies look for. The investment becomes much  
more of a gamble than marketing the latest and greatest (again  
debatable :-) ) to the larger market of...well...everyone.

Gian Anthony Constantine
Senior Network Design Engineer
Earthlink, Inc.
Office: 404-748-6207
Cell: 404-808-4651
Internal Ext: x22007
constantinegi at corp.earthlink.net

On Jan 8, 2007, at 5:15 PM, Bora Akyol wrote:

>
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-nanog at merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog at merit.edu] On
>> Behalf Of Gian Constantine
>> Sent: Sunday, January 07, 2007 7:18 PM
>> To: nanog at merit.edu
>> Subject: Re: Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a
>> day, continuously?
>>
> <snip>
>> In entertainment, content is king. More specifically, new
>> release content is king. While internet distribution may help
>> breathe life into the long tail market, it is hard to imagine
>> any major shift from existing distribution methods. People
>> simply like the latest TV shows and the latest movies.
>
> What's new to you is very different from what's new to me?
>
> I am very happy watching 1 year old episodes of Top Gear whereas
> if you are located in the UK, you may consider this as old news.
>
> The story here is about the cost of storing the video content (which
> is asymptotically zero) and the cost of distributing it (which is also
> asymptotically
> approaching zero, despite the ire of the SPs).
>
>
>> So, this leaves us with little more than what is already
>> offered by the MSOs: linear TV and VoD. This is where things
>> become complex.
>>
>> The studios will never (not any time soon) allow for a
>> subscription based VoD on new content. They would instantly
>> be sued by Time Warner (HBO).
>
> This is a very US-centric view of the world. I am sure there are
> hundreds of
> TV stations from India, Turkey, Greece, etc that would love to put  
> their
> content
> online and make money off the long tail.
>
>> I guess where I am going with all this is simply it is very
>> hard to make this work from a business and marketing side.
>> The network constraints are, likely, a minor issue for some
>> time to come. Interest is low in the public at large for
>> primary (or even major secondary) video service on the PC.
>>
>
> Again, your views are very US centric, and are mono-cultural.
>
> If you open your horizons, I think there is a world of content out  
> there
> that the content owners would be happy to license and sell at < 10  
> cents
> a pop.
> To them it is dead content, but it turns out that they are worth
> something to someone out there.
> This is what iTunes, and Rhapsody are doing with music. And the day of
> the video is coming.
>
> Bora
>
> -- Off to raise some venture funds now. (Just kidding ;)
>

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