An informal survey... round II

John Curran jcurran at
Thu Aug 30 11:16:40 UTC 2007

So with a fairly predictable growth of 3500 routes per month, we're
going to have some issues with the current equipment out there
(despite this being a rather predictable situation...)

So what might happen in three years if we have a sudden inflection
in new routes per month due to use by major backbones of non-
hierarchically allocated address space for new customer additions?
I.E.  If at some time unknown around 2010, ISP's stop receiving
new allocations from their RIR, and instead use of many smaller
"recycled" IPv4 address blocks, we could be looking at a 10x to
20x increase in routes per month for the same customer growth.

Is the equipment being installed *today* and over the next two
years capable of sustaining 50K new routes per month, and if so,
for how long?


At 4:47 AM +0000 8/30/07, bmanning at wrote:
>On Wed, Aug 29, 2007 at 06:48:43PM -0400, Jon Lewis wrote:
>> On Mon, 27 Aug 2007, David Conrad wrote:
>> >For a few more months.  What are upgrade cycles like again?  How common
>> >are the MSFC2s?
>> I think we'll find out in a few months, when the "internet breaks" in a
>> whole bunch of places where the admins aren't aware of this issue or
>> operations have been downsized to the point that things are mostly on
>> auto-pilot.  I'm guessing there are a good number of Sup2's in use, and
>> that a good % of them think they're they have 512MB RAM and on
>> the software based routers, that's plenty for current full BGP routes.
>	private replies suggest (w/ lots of handwaving) that perhaps 20-35%
>	of the forwarding engines in use might fit this catagory.
>> Anyone want to bet there will be people posting to nanog and cisco-nsp in
>> a few months asking why either the CPU load on their Sup2's has suddenly
>> shot up or why they keep noticing parts of the internet have gone
>> unreachable?...oblivious to this thread.
>	that would be a sucker bet
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>>  Jon Lewis                   |  I route

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