"2M today, 10M with no change in technology"? An informal survey.

Jon Lewis jlewis at lewis.org
Tue Aug 28 00:50:48 UTC 2007

On Mon, 27 Aug 2007, David Conrad wrote:

>> Any reasonably valid way of predicting when we'll hit 244,000 routes in the 
>> default-free zone?
> Um?
> Real Soon Now?
> I must be missing something obvious (or should I be dusting off my unused Y2K 
> survival gear?)

Unlike Y2K, the end of the useful service life up the Sup2 can easily be 
pushed further away in time.

ASnum  	NetsNow	  NetsAggr	  NetGain	  % Gain  	Description

Table  	233651	  151129	  82522	  35.3%  	All ASes

AS4134  	1337	  339	  998	  74.6%  	CHINANET-BACKBONE No.31,Jin-rong Street
AS18566  	1020	  101	  919	  90.1%  	COVAD - Covad Communications Co.
AS4323  	1315	  437	  878	  66.8%  	TWTC - Time Warner Telecom, Inc.
AS4755  	1331	  507	  824	  61.9%  	VSNL-AS Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd. Autonomous System

There's really only 151129 routes you need to have "full routes".  Forcing 
just these top 4 slobs to aggregate reduces your global table by 3619 
routes.  Forcing the top 30 to aggregate frees up 15809 routes.

Of course there are other reasons to upgrade (better CPU, MPLS, IPv6, 
etc.), but if you can't upgrade, there are alternatives to stretch the old 
hardware.  It's not like it hasn't been done before.

  Jon Lewis                   |  I route
  Senior Network Engineer     |  therefore you are
  Atlantic Net                |
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