shim6 @ NANOG (forwarded note from John Payne)
dgolding at burtongroup.com
Mon Mar 6 22:05:52 UTC 2006
On 3/6/06 10:25 AM, "Stephen Sprunk" <stephen at sprunk.org> wrote:
> Thus spake <Michael.Dillon at btradianz.com>
>> Let's face it, IPv6 is close enough to IPv4 that any
>> attempt to put a price on IPv4 addresses will simply
>> cause a massive migration to free and plentiful IPv6
> You assume that there will be a source of free and plentiful IPv6 addresses.
> AFAIK, none of them are rent-free, and they're not even available unless you
> have the clue and resources to prented to be an LIR.
> So, unless there's policy change, most end-user orgs will have no choice but
> to pay the market rate for IPv4 addresses. Spot markets are good when
> demand is elastic, but we're faced with a market that has growing inelastic
> demand that will outstrip fixed supply in a decade. Capitalism doesn't
> handle that well.
> Stephen Sprunk "Stupid people surround themselves with smart
> CCIE #3723 people. Smart people surround themselves with
> K5SSS smart people who disagree with them." --Aaron Sorkin
There will be a average cost per host to transition from v4 to v6. When the
cost of IPv4 addresses exceeds the transition cost, then you have the one
thing missing from IPv6 discussions: an ROI.
Many organizations wont even look at this without an ROI. Folks who want to
see v6 adopted would be well advised to support the creation of a hard ROI
through these means.
(Just as an aside - capitalism has historically been the best mechanism for
resource allocation - scarce resource or plentiful. Command economics have
never historically beaten a fair and open market, despite the beliefs of a
certain sector of those involved with IP address allocation.
ARIN (and/or RIPE, APNIC) should really use a bit of their budget surplus to
provide a few grants to economics professors who are experts in commodity
market issues. As engineers, we grope in the dark concerning fairly well
established scientific principles we are unfamiliar with. Its like
reinventing the wheel. :(
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