Internet 2010 - Predictions for 2010 from a Content Forum and NANOG 37 in San Jose

Tue Jun 20 17:48:06 UTC 2006

### On Tue, 20 Jun 2006 09:13:16 -0700, "William B. Norton"
### <bill.norton at gmail.com> casually decided to expound upon nanog at merit.edu
### the following thoughts about "Internet 2010 - Predictions for 2010 from
### a Content Forum and NANOG 37 in San Jose":

WBN> Content Provider Predictions for 2010
WBN> ------------------------------------------------------
WBN> Here is the question I put to a group of Content Providers at a content forum:
WBN> 
WBN> "We are sitting around this table in 2010 and we are commenting how
WBN> remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:"

I think it might have been hedged upon in the responses you heard but I'm
suprised it wasn't specifically mentioned that there will be a rise in
customized content aggregation at the consumer level supported by mobility
aspects.  Think of RSS feeds but on steroids.  This will be promoted by the
next generation of portable PIM and communication devices (3G/4G?).  It will
incorporate the ability to rogram or dynamically figure out a "workflow" for
pulling content (or setting up content services for specific push) and will
be situationally aware for the user so as to present the right things in the
right format at the right time through the right interface.  A simple
example:

	You're walking down the street and get hungry.  You pick up your
	phone and "tell" it to find you a nearby restaurant that serves
	gyros.  The phone would consult from its local cache of inromation
	and if it throws a miss, will go out to one of the local searches
	and after exchanging your locale, will get the names and locations
	of several restaurants in the area.  It will also have gotten the
	directions to them from where you are.  It also knows that you are
	on foot so it will calculate several transportation options
	depending on what's available including walking, taxi, busses,
	trams, etc.  Say you pick the bus.  it will then determine where the
	busses are and when the next available one will arrive by consulting
	the bus service's information server which tracks bus locations via
	GPS.  It can even be smart enough to determine if that bus will have
	seats available by a combination of usage pattern data gathered over
	the last week for the time of day and the current number of riders
	on the bus.  It will then signal the bus to stop at the closest stop
	to you and also tell you how to get to the bus stop.

	At the same time, it'll go out and do other things like search for
	the wait-time at the restaurant, pull up a menu, gather reviews of
	the food, make reservations if necessary... etc.  Now mind you that
	you might not use all the information that's being gathered but it
	will still be available.  In addition to performing these tasks for
	just the immediate need, the phone may also be constantly updating
	itself with news stories (in a multimedia format) so you can read
	during your trip to the restaurant.  If an accident occurs that's
	along your bus route, it will determine if the bus service intends
	to reroute around it and also calculate alternate routes for you so
	you can get off at another stop and take some other form of
	multimodal transportation to your destination.

Although I've just describe the function of but one device in one specific
situation, you can see the content access is numerous and diverse.  And of
course all this information will need to be compiled and presented in a
unified integrated format that's easy for the user to quickly digest without
getting information overload.  Now maybe the device doesn't do this all by
itself.  Maybe it talks to an information broker service which simply
streams the precompiled content back.  Now despite everything I've written
above, I've only very lightly touched the surface.

WBN> Internet Service Providers Predictions for 2010
WBN> ------------------------------------------------------------------
WBN> 
WBN> "We are sitting around this table in 2010 at NANOG and we are
WBN> commenting how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically
WBN> that:"

Given the example from above, content providers will require more
geodiversity/georedundancy.  Local peering will become increasingly
important... especially with the wireless carriers.  ISPs will have to
become more savvy with regards to IP mobility.  This will probably be the
eventual driver for native IPv6 deployment.  Customers will engage in more
dynamic traffic shaping at the CPE.  There will be an increase in
service-based peering clubs/unions.  There will be ann increase in demand
for seamless layer-1 handoff.  The ability to go from wireline to wireless
to content push direct to a third-party display and input interface will
become smoother regardless of how the end devices are network homed.

--
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