classful routes redux

Sat Nov 5 00:19:41 UTC 2005

At 11:10 AM 5/11/2005, Randy Bush wrote:
> >> no waffling.  you said october 14th, and we're holding you to it!
> >> we would like to know about what time of day, so we can schedule
> >> lunch and coffee.
> > well, the figures indicate that RIPE will receive 10 requests on that day,
> > and will start the day with 5 left in their pool. So the first allocation
> > processed after lunch will fail - so that would mean at 2:00 pm CET on the
> > 14th October 2010 - or thereabouts! :-).
>                          v
>uh, won't that be 14:00 CST?  as we don't do summertime here,
>this difference will impact my first cuppa.

my mistake - yes, that will be CST rather than CET

I trust that this adjustment will not impact your scheduling of the lunch 
and coffee caterers :-)

As you point out, the IP issue is much harder, and because the transition 
is so markedly different from the AS one the dynamics of exhaustion of the 
unallocated IP V4 address pool will undoubtedly be different (and much 
harder to use relatively simple numerical methods to predict). I could use 
the word "panic" but as we are all responsible and careful players here 
let's just call it the looming scenario of folk looking at  "last chance 
direct IPv4 address allocations" in the near term future. I'd be interested 
if anyone here has some generic modelling tools that include modelling of 
such so-called 'panic' situations, as I'd be interested to apply it to this 
situation in various ways.

   Geoff