as numbers
Henk Uijterwaal
henk at ripe.net
Fri Jul 29 07:59:42 UTC 2005
Hank,
At 09:13 29/07/2005, Hank Nussbacher wrote:
>"Of the 32,557 assigned AS numbers, some 19,859 are advertised, while
>12,698 have been allocated in the past, but are not currently advertised
>in the BGP routing table."
>
>I would have liked to see how well the RIRs are at recovering unused
>ASNs, if at all. For example ARIN has a 30 day policy:
>http://www.arin.net/registration/templates/asn-request.txt
>
>Do the RIRs *ever* revoke an ASN after the customer does not follow the
>RIR stated rules? Would love to see numbers on that issue. No wonder the
>ASN pool will expire in 2010.
I'd think that 30 days is too low. What we see (*) is that after 30 days,
only half of the assigned ASN have appeared on the Internet. Some 75%
of the assigned ASN appear on the net in the first 6 months after
assignment, 80-85% after a year. Anything not seen after a year (15-20%),
is unlikely to ever appear, these can be recovered (at least in theory).
While this looks like a lot, it does not really solve any problem. Geoff's
numbers show that the pool will expire in 5 years. Our estimate is a
little bit longer, but not that much. 2010-2005 is 5 years, if the trend
that 20% never appears continues and all these ASN are revoked, this simply
means that the pool will expire in 6 years. 2010 or 2011 hardly makes a
difference.
Henk
* Some of our research was presented by Rene Wilhelm @ RIPE50 last May,
http://www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-50/presentations/ripe50-plenary-mon-asmia.pdf,
we have some additional results. We are working on a write-up
of all our results, stay tuned.
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