OMB: IPv6 by June 2008
Iljitsch van Beijnum
iljitsch at muada.com
Wed Jul 6 17:23:01 UTC 2005
On 6-jul-2005, at 17:56, Edward Lewis wrote:
> The Internet serves society, society owes nothing to the Internet.
> Members of this list may prioritize communications technology,
> other members of society may prioritize different interests and
> concerns. That is why IPv6 must offer a benefit greater than it's
> cost.
You are approaching the problem at the wrong end by asking "what's in
it for me to adopt IPv6 now". The real question is "is IPv6
inevitable in the long run".
It's hard to be sure that the answer for that question is "yes",
since all kinds of things can happen between now and, say, 2020. But
it certainly looks like IPv4 addressing issues are becoming more and
more painful over time. For instance, so far this year 98 million
IPv4 addresses were assigned or allocated by RIRs. There are
currently 1.1 - 1.2 billion usable addresses marked "reserved" (=
"unused") by the IANA, so at this rate IANA be flat out in 2011. Now
it's possible that the past 6 months were a fluke and it will take
twice as long, or it's the start of a new trend and it's going to go
even faster.
In any event, in the year 2020 we're NOT going to run IPv4 as we know
it today. It's possible that the packets that travel over the wires
still look like regular IPv4/TCP/UDP packets and all the complexity
is pushed out to the application or political/economic layers, but
that's not a possibility that appeals to me.
So by all means, be an IPv6 hold out as long as you like, but don't
assume that just because adopting IPv6 doesn't make economic sense
for you now, it isn't going to happen at some point in the next
decade. No rush, though.
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