New IPv4 Allocation to ARIN

Mon Jan 19 18:22:08 UTC 2004

Also as you know I have been running statistics at 
http://www.completewhois.com/statistics/
(note: dont believe about "green" for 70/8, I still have not fixed collection
to ignore occasional single wrong announcements from routeviews)

Its interesting that 69/8 block is currently only 39% allocated. To be 
honest I was not expecting ARIN to request another block under such 
condition, I was expecting when its either almost full (say 75%) or when 
it reaches previously agreed upon mark of 50% (see my other post). 
The only thing I could think of is that ARIN is allocating smaller block 
leaving some portion of the block "in reserve" for future allocation to 
the same entity and as a result it reached "critical point" of beyond 50
percent point of the block. So I checked and found that 69.128.0.0/18 was 
actually allocated on 2003-03-25. Checking again, it turns out the last
(in terms of beginning) allocation they have is 69.178.0.0/17 made on 
2004-01-13. Ok so 0-178 makes it 70% used for that class-a as far as 
point they reached for allocations. 

Now if I only knew for certain if this was indeed the formula they used 
deciding when to request new ip block, we could easily predict when 
next block would be requested and based on rate of growth for existing 
block even predict this several months ahead of time. 

On Mon, 19 Jan 2004 william at elan.net wrote:

> 
> It has been known for quite some time that next block to be allocated to 
> ARIN is 70/8 (and next one will be 71/8). It might have been nice if ARIN 
> were to run projections and inform community that by its projections it 
> will be requesting new /8 ip block in say 2 month time. 
> 
> On Mon, 19 Jan 2004, Daniel Karrenberg wrote:
> 
> > 
> > On 16.01 13:13, jlewis at lewis.org wrote:
> > > ... 
> > > Alternatively, the RIRs might consider doing this sort of thing before
> > > allocating IPs from new blocks.  I know it's not their job to make sure
> > > IPs are routable (especially not on every remote network), but as holders
> > > of all the IPs, they are in the best position to setup such test sites
> > > that would expose problems before they're dumped on members.  
> > 
> > Personally I agree with you and I will argue accordingly in the relevant places.
> > Cooperation with the bogon project seems logical too.
> > 
> > Daniel