2004 network predictions.

batz batsy at vapour.net
Tue Dec 30 11:24:46 UTC 2003



Here are some dire predictions for 2004.

While it would be easy to say that the world will end,
I think these are all things that reasonably could happen,
and we could act pre-emptively to mitigate their effects.


- Virus infections of handhelds and mobile phones
  causing widespread problems for cell networks
  similar to worms that flood out IP networks.
  - Bonus points for a bluetooth infection vector.
   - Extra bonus points if it floods newly minted
     VoIP telecom networks. Grim.

- E-mail whitelist technology gains mainstream acceptance
  as spam hits critical mass. Spam recieved by astronauts
  in space.

- ISP's search for new business models realizing that wireless
  providers are making a mint charging by the kilobyte, and more
  users just surf at work.

- Wireless network "terrorism" or "porn" incident galvanizes
  legislators to force hotspot operators to get ID  or credit
  card numbers from customers.

- Really Bad instant-messenger worm that we can't do anything
  about because it doesn't use consistant tcp/udp ports.

- ISP's use managed anti-virus/security to sell new managed services
  to users. Birth of the fully provider managed home PC?

- Affinity networks/six-degrees site privacy boondoggle.
  One is caught selling access data to airlines or
  transport security or something. Everyone feels sick
  as Friendster acquired by Equifax?

- Private crypted networks used for P2P. Call them blacknets,
  darknets, or in true arrr-pirate fashion, booty-nets.
  yo-ho-ho.

- Successful virtual worm network forged after a
  worm spreads its second phase and installs an onion
  routed virtual network. Maybe a new P2P network?

- Linux kernel made illegal, somewhere, for a minute.
  Presidential candidate may admit to using it once,
  but didn't look at the source. RIAA/MPAA/DMCA a
  surprise US election issue.

- LEA access to ISP's formalized, spearheaded by
  Cisco and its "lawful interception" capability.
  Court gag order placed on participating ISP's,
  disgruntled admin leaks details to Cryptome or
  Phrack.

- More end-to-end control connections that
  identify/validate/authenticate end users. Eg,
  VPN's, SSL, PPP. An assault on anonymity and
  stateless protocols, or technologies that interrupt
  the statefulness of the connection between user and
  their primary providers. (eg, WiFi, P2P, UDP, VoIP).

- P2P on the road to obselescence caused by higher metred
  bandwidth charges to home cable users in line with
  wireless costs. While there is a glut of bandwidth
  capacity available for transit, this is not the case
  for end-user consumption. Cable providers will lower
  bandwidth caps under the auspices of combatting piracy,
  enabling them to actually make money.


Given these sort of predictions, I don't mind
being wrong. Have a good year, I'll post again
then. ;)


-- 
batz



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