Code Red growth stats

Wed Aug 1 21:19:19 UTC 2001

In message <Pine.SOL.3.93.1010801170555.4987V-100000 at acns.fsu.edu>, Scott Sturs
a writes:
>
>On Wed, 1 Aug 2001, Dave Stewart wrote:
>
>> I suspect we'll see it begin to pick up a little bit... it looks like 
>> Billybob is just starting to get home from work and fire up his whizbang 
>> Windows 2000 machine, which he put IIS on so he can share kewl warez and 
>> mp3z with his leet friends...
>
>At 1500 EDT I put a counter on one of our commodity Internet connections,
>looking for port 80 connects to one of our unassigned /24 subnets.  Here
>are the results so far:
>
>1500-1530: 682
>1530-1600: 536
>1600-1630: 533
>1630-1700: 643
>
>Seems to be picking up.

Maybe -- we need more data to be sure.  But -- given that a lot of 
folks have patched systems over the last two weeks -- I suspect it's 
running out of "food".  Look at the graph from the last go-round at
http://www.cert.org/advisories/CA-2001-23.html -- it leveled off, too.
(If the Worm is operating on UTC, the "stop" phase would have commenced 
at 2000 EDT.  Even if it ran on local time, Western European machines 
wouldn't quiesce until 1700.  The drop off starts well before that.)

		--Steve Bellovin, http://www.research.att.com/~smb