[nanog] Re: Microsoft offering xDSL access

Jay R. Ashworth jra at scfn.thpl.lib.fl.us
Sat Jan 24 05:44:42 UTC 1998

On Fri, Jan 23, 1998 at 12:12:49PM -0600, Karl Denninger wrote:
> A T1 from us, for example, is $600 a month - WITHOUT the circuit.
> Its $600 regardless of whether you use tin cans and string, a HDSL DS1, a
> traditional DS1, a wireless DS1 using whatever, or genies flying around with
> the bits.
> The reason is that the local loop cost is not included in the price!  
> Now, ADSL can affect local loop prices (downward).  What it can't do is
> change the basics of how data is transported on a national and international
> scale, and THAT is where the cost components that go into the $600 fee come
> from.
> Anyone claiming they can deliver T1 speeds for $30-40 a month is lying given
> the current state of interconnection expense across real distances.  Quest
> and others laying fiber will not lower these costs by 95%, which is
> PRECISELY what has to happen to hit those targets.

Save your breath, Karl; I've been banging this drum for _months_ now,
or more, in a half dozen venues, and no one's getting it.

The only thing I can figure is that the morons in question are going to
quote, for legal purposes, "peak" or "burst" bandwidth, which is
moderately safe initially, because the initial customer base will be
largely surfers... but if you give people bandwidth like that full
time, the server population will _skyrocket_... which they won't
account for... the cableco's have already blown this one.

-- jra
Jay R. Ashworth                                                jra at baylink.com
Member of the Technical Staff             Unsolicited Commercial Emailers Sued
The Suncoast Freenet      "Two words: Darth Doogie."  -- Jason Colby,
Tampa Bay, Florida             on alt.fan.heinlein              +1 813 790 7592

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