avg at quake.net
Thu Aug 29 21:24:13 UTC 1996
Perry E. Metzger <perry at piermont.com> wrote:
>> Excuse me, but bandwidth demand doubles in about half year,
>> while Moore's law is that semiconductor capacity doubles every
>> 2 years. There's no indication that this will change any time
>> Nice brick wall :)
>I doubt it.
I doubt it too, but for entirely different reason.
>The curve is racing upward now because of all the people
>who are suddenly connecting to the net. Once a large fraction of them
>are on the curve will slow dramatically -- demand for bandwidth will
>continue to increase, but only as fast as the customers can eat it,
>which is by definition related to how fast their equipment runs.
Ah, you forgot that Internet is not a single-technology medium.
It is not a single wave of customers, it is going to be waves after
waves following customer acceptance of newer technologies --
watch Internet telephony, video telephony, 3-D videocom, or whatever
bandwidth hog of tomorrow it will be.
>There will be some problems between now and the time things slow down,
There is a very strong suspiction that Internet is not going to slow
down, as new bandwidth-intensive technologies will keep popping up.
There's already 20 years of growth fueled by introduction of e-mail,
USENET, Web. In a sense it's very much like Moore's Law -- nobody
knows what new technology will sustain the trend tomorrow, but the
trend is pretty stable.
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