One Year On: IPv4 Exhaust

Sun Sep 25 16:29:02 UTC 2016

On Sunday, September 25, 2016, Paul Thornton <paul at prt.org> wrote:

> On 25/09/2016 01:54, Jay R. Ashworth wrote:
>
>> One year ago today, at 12:36pm EDT, Facebook On This Day reminds me, John
>> Curran announced that the last IPv4 address block in ARIN's Free Pool had
>> been assigned.
>>
>> How's that been workin' out for everyone?
>>
>
> If you'll all indulge a bit of a RIPE-centric reply on this; I've was
> allocated a /22 from around half-way through 185.169.0.0/16 last week
> (185 being RIPE's final /8).
>
> Assuming that RIPE are allocating sequentially - and I believe they are -
> This means that they have consumed around 66.5% of their final /8. They
> started allocating from this in September 2012, which suggests a reasonably
> low consumption rate but the RIPE final /8 will be exhausted in around two
> years time.
>
> I can't find an equivalent ARIN page of "how much we've allocated from our
> last /8" - the statistics show that just over 2x /16s worth have been
> assigned/allocated between January 2016 and July 2016, so a lower rate by
> some margin than RIPE - but there are of course policy differences at play
> there.
>
> Now the operational question of "How has this affected us" is probably
> best answered with "We've had to pay real money for IPv4 addresses since
> then."  What may be much more interesting is what happens when the fairly
> ready supply of IPv4 addresses in the secondary transfer market starts to
> dry up.  Just throwing additional money at the problem will probably not be
> an effective or viable solution then.
>
> I'm sure that Geoff Huston has a much more accurate and colourful set of
> predictions than my back-of-envelope calculations for those interested!
>
> Paul.
>

For your use case , would ipv6 solve anything?

Think it is fair to say big content and big eyeballs have moved to IPv6
(notable exceptions exist)

http://www.internetsociety.org/deploy360/blog/2016/08/facebook-akamai-pass-major-milestone-over-50-ipv6-from-us-mobile-networks/