Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration

Owen DeLong owen at delong.com
Mon Jan 4 19:59:40 UTC 2016


> 
> 
> Add to that the fact that as we run closer to (or further into?) run-out, at some point there's likely to be a rapid acceleration in v6 provisioning as networks finally realize that they can't reasonably get any more v4 space or their end-user customers finally begin to demand v6.
> 
> If Brighthouse has people on-list...you're embarrassingly late to this party...and its time to start calling out end-user providers that still don't even offer v6.

Here’s the thing, from my perspective (and I’ve been doing this for a while and I think I have a pretty good perspective from talking to a lot of people from all different levels and areas of involved)…

Eyeball providers have an inherent forcing function. They _WILL_ run out of IPv4 addresses and they will have no choice but to start bringing up some new customers on IPv6. They will eventually need to recycle addresses allocated to current customers to things like CGN if they still have to maintain IPv4 connectivity for their customers.

The real focus that needs to move now is content.

Check out http://www.delong.com/ipv6_alexa500.html <http://www.delong.com/ipv6_alexa500.html> and/or http://www.delong.com/ipv6_fortune500.html <http://www.delong.com/ipv6_fortune500.html> for a look at how this is going… It’s _NOT_ good.

18% (90) of the top 500 web sites even have an AAAA record for the domain name.
Interestingly, there are 18 more sites (108, still 18%) that have AAAA records for www.domain name.

Unfortunately, only 13.8% (69) of those return a status 200 in response to a query for the domain name
and only 16.2% (81) for www.domain name as of this writing.

For the fortune 500, it’s even more bleak. 13 sites (2.63%) have AAAA records with only 9 (1.82%) of them
returning status 200.

These numbers might be slightly pessimistic because 3XX series responses are not counted as good.

So long as the content situation remains this bad, there is no option to turn off IPv4 at the eyeball level.

Additionally, there’s a large volume of consumer devices that are IPv4 only still being produced. This is a huge problem.

IMHO, that’s the truly critical issue.

Eyeball providers that haven’t started to move yet are much more capable of an accelerated deployment using a well trod path at this point and will have more than ample motivation relatively soon.

On the content side, however, so far the motivations are somewhat limited and require vision and foresight which is often lacking in corporate leadership.

Owen




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