Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration

Mon Jan 4 16:28:16 UTC 2016

> On Jan 4, 2016, at 11:09 AM, Ca By <cb.list6 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 3:26 AM, Neil Harris <neil at tonal.clara.co.uk> wrote:
>> 
>>> On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote:
>>> 
>>> Hi,
>>> 
>>>     according to Google's statistics
>>> (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st December
>>> 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just a
>>> little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December we also
>>> celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC 1883.
>>> 
>>> I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-)
>>> 
>>> Tomas
>> Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is following a
>> logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for neatness, I get:
>> 
>> Jan 2016: 10%
>> Jan 2017: 20%
>> Jan 2018: 33%
>> Jan 2019: 50%
>> Jan 2020: 67%
>> Jan 2021: 80%
>> Jan 2022: 90%
>> 
>> with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4
>> switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.
>> 
>> Neil
> Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number.
> 
> The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile devices.
> 
> Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply extends the
> past onto the future.  It does not account for purposeful engineering
> design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates.
> 
> For example, once Apple cleanses the app store of IPv4 apps in 2016 as they
> have committed and pushes one of their ubiquitous iOS updates, you may see
> substantial jumps over night in IPv6 eyeballs, possibly meaningful moving
> that 37% number to over 50% in a few shorts weeks.
> 
> This will squarely make it clear that IPv4 is minority legacy protocol for
> all of mobile, and thusly the immediate future of the internet.

I for one welcome the iOS update that brings v6 APN native access to my phone, or at least v4v6 APN setting. 

I keep hearing rumors it is "coming soon". 

This could have a similar step function in the traffic and graphs. 