[arin-ppml] NAT444 rumors (was Re: Looking for an IPv6naysayer...)

Fri Feb 18 20:48:05 UTC 2011

----- Original Message -----
> From: "Scott Helms" <khelms at ispalliance.net>
> To: nanog at nanog.org
> Sent: Saturday, 19 February, 2011 8:07:54 AM
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] NAT444 rumors (was Re: Looking for an IPv6naysayer...)
> On 2/18/2011 1:53 PM, Franck Martin wrote:
> > http://www.jetcafe.org/~npc/isp/large.html
> >
> > If you take the 5 top US ISPs and get them to do dual stack IPv6,
> > that's 50 million subscribers in the US only.
> >
> > I think google and others will notice some serious traffic
> > happening.
> We're years from the point where any one of them will have more than a
> tiny fraction of their traffic as IPv6 and that's assuming that all we
> have to deal with are the known problems.

May be, may be not, but yes non of them are ready like free did to "switch on" IPv6 on their CPE. US ISPs have been caught their pants down. It is going to be ugly.
> 
> > It took a market share of 10 to 20% of Mozilla for web developers to
> > go back to support ALL browsers. Same for mobile web site a 10%
> > surfing rate got many companies to develop web sites for mobiles.
> 
> Not really comparable because in both of those cases users were making
> a
> choice, because they perceived some benefit, and hence there was
> demand
> to adapt to those new platforms. There is almost 0 demand for IPv6
> from
> consumers and what is there is from the technologists. We don't have a
> situation where the existing infrastructure doesn't work, it does.

Yes there is no demand from consumers, but a consumer on IPv6 is a consumer on IPv6, and that will happen with IPv4 depletion, now once we reach 10% of them, then web analytic tools and email marketing tools and anything that tracks consumer behavior will have to be IPv6 compliant. You don't want to ignore 10% of your consumers, and that was my point.

Google IPv6 traffic is at 0.3%, nice, but hardly significant to have a boss to ask: "I want those IPv6 consumers counted".

I'm looking at where is the critical mass point, when the machine will work on itself, I say 10%.

> 
> > If I recall Comcast and Time Warner are participating in IPv6 day.
> > This should create enough eyeballs to show on web analytics graph
> > and provide the shift that makes nat444 irrelevant.
> 
> I wish, but IPv6 day will be much more of a media event than anything
> else. Keep in mind that none of these things are what I wish only what
> I believe to be accurate.
> 

Sure on IPv6 day they won't light up all their customers, but they made a commitment to be there sooner than later. And yes it is a media event where many companies are saying me too, we are ready, or about to! Or "it will be in next release" which is better than "gosh, there is no demand for that and you are the first one to ask me", which is better than "it will fail".