IPv6 mistakes, was: Re: Looking for an IPv6 naysayer...

Fri Feb 11 20:29:35 UTC 2011

>> Comcast, nor the other large MSOs, are not as monolithic as they may appear from the outside.  In most cases the large MSOs are divided into regions that are more or less autonomous and that doesn't count the outlier properties that haven't been brought into the fold of the region they are in for various, usually cost related, reasons so don't expect a large block of any of those guys to suddenly be at 60% of their users can get IPv6 addresses.
>>
> I think you'll be in for a surprise here.
We'll see, I have reasons to be (deeply) skeptical, but I hope you're 
right.  Care to speculate on a time frame for when we might get a 
pleasant surprise?

>> While Facebook working over IPv6 will be a big deal you won't get all of their traffic since a significant fraction of that traffic is from mobile devices which are going to take much longer than PCs to get to using IPv6 in large numbers.  Also, Netflix is even more problematic since the bulk of their traffic, and the fastest growing segment as well, is coming from Xboxes, Tivos, other gaming consoles, and  TVs with enough embedded brains to talk directly.  Those devices will also seriously lag behind PCs in IPv6 support.
>>
> I think you'll be in for a surprise here, too. The 4G transition is already underway. For the vendors where 4G means LTE, IPv6 is the native protocol and IPv4 requires a certain amount of hackery to operate.
LTE won't be "real" for the vast majority of subs until the they have an 
LTE handset, which won't happen until they replace their existing 3G 
phone.  That won't happen unless Verizon and AT&T decide to suddenly 
give people upgrade credits before their contract would allow.  What's 
worse the whole LTE isn't really 4G and will be replaced by LTE+ makes 
this worse.  If you're a phone maker you're likely trying to decide if 
you've gone to far to delay your product launch or if you can wait for 
LTE+ chipsets before releasing your new phone.
> In the WiMax case (Gee, thanks, SPRINT), things are a bit murkier, but, I think you will see WiMax go IPv6 pretty quickly as well.
>
> Yes, it will take a little longer to retire the 3G system(s) than many other parts of the internet, but, I think you will see most of it going away in the 5-7 year range.
3G will be around in substantial amounts for at least 10 years outside 
of the top 20 metro markets.
> You misunderstand how getaddrinfo() works under the hood. The code itself first does an AAAA lookup and then does an A lookup. DNS does not return both record sets at once. If there is an AAAA record, it will return first.
>
> Some OS have modified things to resort the getaddrinfo() returns based on the perceived type of IPv6 and IPv4 connectivity available as an attempt to reduce certain forms of brokenness. However, even in those cases, you should get the AAAA first if you have real IPv6 connectivity.
I haven't looked at the code so that it is entirely possible, but I am 
more concerned with what the content providers do.  Does MS implement 
the POSIX function?  I don't know, but if not whatever Win(XP-7) does is 
much more important to traffic than what all of the BSD and Linux 
variants do.

Right now you can have a completely working dual stack set up and if 
your ISP's name server isn't on Google's (and a host of others) white 
list you'll never get the AAAA record no matter what order your client 
resolver code asks for the addresses in.

http://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-ietf-v6ops-v6-aaaa-whitelisting-implications-02

http://arstechnica.com/web/news/2010/03/yahoo-wants-two-faced-dns-to-aid-ipv6-deployment.ars

The point here is that there are multiple hoops that have to navigated 
and if any one of them is missed the client will work over v4 and that 
will keep the ramp up of v6 traffic modest for a long time to come.  
BTW, I don't want to be right here but I know intimately how ISPs, CPE 
vendors, and customers behave.
>
>

-- 
Scott Helms
Vice President of Technology
ISP Alliance, Inc. DBA ZCorum
(678) 507-5000
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http://twitter.com/kscotthelms
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