ipv4's last graph

Wed Feb 2 17:01:34 UTC 2011

So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my
head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months
and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug.
2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider.
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf

Tony

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Geoff Huston [mailto:gih at apnic.net]
> Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:12 PM
> To: Randy Bush
> Cc: NANOG Operators' Group
> Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
> 
> 
> On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
> 
> > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those
> nice
> > graphs any more.  might we have one last one for the turnstiles?  :-
> )/2
> >
> > and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
> > gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in
> presos.
> 
> but of course.
> 
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
> 
> This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the
> predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy
> (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the
> event will occur in that particular month.
> 
> The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up
> across the regions and each region will work from its local address
> pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region
> gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their
> demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not
> possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond
> the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage
> looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for
> the other RIRs are highly uncertain.
> 
> Geoff