IPv4 sunset date revised : 2009-02-05

Fri Oct 22 17:28:24 UTC 2010

It occurs to me that there is some pressing need to investigate this
all-IPv6 internet -- motivated by the cost of (not) maintaining IPv4
forever.

Right now we can observe essentially an all-IPv4 internet (99%,
whatever.)

In a very few years, possibly as few as two, the picture might become
much more muddied and it could become more difficult to extract IPv4
specific costs from mixed IPv4/IPv6 costs.

For example, I'd imagine the RIRs are just at the cusp of ceasing to
spend all their address management efforts on IPv4. In two years more
and more of their expenses might be difficult to distinguish as
exclusively IPv4 or IPv6.

Also, when IPv4 addresses do run out then more effort will be spent on
that new environment where they move from fulfilling needs (i.e., just
making new IPv4 allocations) to mitigating needs -- revocation,
reclamation, and return, and subsequent allocation no doubt by new
policies.

So, this might be roughly our last chance to get some measurements on
the management of an all IPv4 network, and monitor the transition as
it happens.

-- 
        -Barry Shein

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