Only 5x IPv4 /8 remaining at IANA

Owen DeLong owen at delong.com
Fri Oct 22 01:07:43 UTC 2010


On Oct 21, 2010, at 11:53 AM, Joe Maimon wrote:

> 
> 
> Dan White wrote:
> 
>>> Or are the two simply not inter-communicable?
>> 
>> I think that's the $64K question. Do you wait to roll out v6 until you
>> start seeing v6-only hosts start popping up?
> 
> When do you think that will happen and in what percentages of your target populations to matter?
> 
Shortly after runout and that depends on the nature of the growth in your userbase.

>> From an accounting and cost
>> recovery stand point, that probably makes sense in some environments.
>> 
>> However, consider the fact that there will be v6 only hosts popping up
>> after IANA/RIR/ISP exhaustion.
> 
> There is a phase you are missing between depletion and v6 only hosts.
> 
Not really.

> That would be continual and increasing difficulties of obtaining new v4 access and degradation of the quality of that service, hopefully along with a direct inverse effect on the quality and resultant value of v6 service.
> 
That phase will be short-lived and steep.

> The time line and gradations of that phase are far less clear than depletion.
> 
Less clear, yes. Far less? I'm not so sure about that.

> That would explain why so many do not concern themselves with it at this time. Especially those who do not consider themselves to be the party initially responsible for resolving those issues.
> 
I think a more accurate explanation would be a behavior common to Ostriches when experiencing fear.

Tony Hain has a pretty good slide on the stages of IPv6 grief. It seems many engineers and organizations are somehow still in denial and few have moved to rationalization or acceptance.

> http://www.dilbert.com/fast/2006-07-30/
> 
Cute, but, remember, Mr. Adams used to be a Pacific Bell employee. Not exactly the shining example of a forward thinking or innovative company.
So much not so that they ended up being acquired by SBC which later bought and renamed itself AT&T.

Owen





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