Only 5x IPv4 /8 remaining at IANA

Thu Oct 21 19:15:43 UTC 2010

On 21/10/10 14:53 -0400, Joe Maimon wrote:
>
>
>Dan White wrote:
>
>>>Or are the two simply not inter-communicable?
>>
>>I think that's the $64K question. Do you wait to roll out v6 until you
>>start seeing v6-only hosts start popping up?
>
>When do you think that will happen and in what percentages of your 
>target populations to matter?

I could guess, but I'd probably be wrong. I'd like to be wrong in the right
direction :)

>>From an accounting and cost
>>recovery stand point, that probably makes sense in some environments.
>>
>>However, consider the fact that there will be v6 only hosts popping up
>>after IANA/RIR/ISP exhaustion.
>
>There is a phase you are missing between depletion and v6 only hosts.
>
>That would be continual and increasing difficulties of obtaining new 
>v4 access and degradation of the quality of that service, hopefully 
>along with a direct inverse effect on the quality and resultant value 
>of v6 service.

You're thinking in the big picture. I'm thinking of the specific scenario
where my customers start calling me up because they can't get to *one*
really important site that couldn't get v4 addresses. I view that as the
drop dead date for implementing dual-stack for us.

>The time line and gradations of that phase are far less clear than 
>depletion.
>
>That would explain why so many do not concern themselves with it at 
>this time. Especially those who do not consider themselves to be the 
>party initially responsible for resolving those issues.
>
>http://www.dilbert.com/fast/2006-07-30/

I understand the idea that there's going to be a sliding curve of adoption
for those with the resources to purchase v4 transfer. I just don't buy into
the idea that that's going to push back v6 adoption very much. That's going
to be a game for the rich and the richer.

In a way, it's kind of like the credit crunch of a year or two ago. The
large banks and federal reserve colluded to make sure that credit kept
flowing for small businesses and entrepreneurs, even though the current
conditions of the market couldn't support it, because restricted access
to credit by startups with good ideas would have been a rock to the head of
the economy.

I think the press are going to rip into the 'dinosaurs' and 'monopolies'
who don't move quickly enough to support the nimble expansion of new
services based around v6.

-- 
Dan White