IP4 Space

Owen DeLong owen at delong.com
Tue Mar 23 14:10:36 CDT 2010


On Mar 23, 2010, at 10:40 AM, Christopher Morrow wrote:

> On Tue, Mar 23, 2010 at 10:27 AM, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:
> 
>> I think that the additive nature of the IPv6/IPv4 routing tables  will be the
>> driving factor for deprecation of IPv4 pretty quickly once IPv6 starts to
>> reach critical mass.  The problem is that we are so early on the IPv6
>> adoption curve right now that nobody believes IPv6 will become
>> ubiquitous fast enough to be relevant.
> 
> it seems to me that we'll have widespread ipv4 for +10 years at least,
> potentially there will be enough ipv4 alive in 20 years to still
> consider it 'widespread'. I also think we'll see more v4 routes
> (longer prefixes) show up in the first 10yrs, before it gets better :(
> 
I think the pressure to start deprecating IPv4 will start in approximately
11-12 years...

Now = T0
T+3 years -- IPv4 runs out  - Completely, not just IANA or RIRs, but, ISPs, too.
T+8 years -- IPv6 nears ubiquity at least on the public internet
T+11 years -- Economic pressures begin to drive the deprecation of IPv4.

> I could be wrong, I hope I am, but...
> 
>> I think that IPv6 deployment is already showing signs of acceleration.
>> I think that it will lurch forward suddenly shortly after (~6-12 months)
>> IPv4 finally hits the runout wall in a couple of years.
> 
> I agree that v6 deployments seem to be getting
> better/faster/stronger... I think that's good news, but we'll still be
> paying the v4 piper for a while.
> 
Yep. I completely agree.

Owen





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