Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?

Mon Apr 19 01:52:07 UTC 2010

In a message written on Mon, Apr 19, 2010 at 12:08:23PM +1200, Franck Martin wrote:
> And doing guess-o-matic extrapolation, it will take another 3 years before we reach 10,000 ASN advertising IPv6 networks. That will be 33% of ASN. With the impending running out of IPv4 starting next year, seems to me we are not going to make it in an orderly fashion? 

Which impending run out?  IANA exhaustion occurs before RIR exhaustion;
RIR exhaustion occurs before ISP exhaustion.  ISP exhaustion occurs
before end user exhaustion.  [Ok peanut gallery, yes, there are 100
exceptions, work with me here.]

So if you're looking at the data of IANA exhaustion and thinking
an end user won't be able to turn on a new laptop and get an address,
well no, that's wrong.  Also note that some RIR's have an extremely
slow burn rate, and their regions may have addresses for years to
come.

There has also been no real effort by ISP's or end users to squeeze
internal allocations.  ISP's who did "buy a T1 and get a /24" years
ago may revisit that business model and in fact find many of those
customers are using 3 IP's, an external mail server, a web server,
and a NAT box.  Right sizing those returns a lot of space to the useful
pool.

> Anybody has better projections? What's the plan? 

While I don't think the we're as far ahead as we would like, I
caution against taking the last few years of IPv6 numbers and
"guestimating".  We've had an unusually long period of early adopter
time which dominates all current data.  Also, plain linear and
exponential models don't fit well as adoption curves are in fact S
curves.  While you can get linear and exponential models that look
similar to the first curve on the S, it's no the same thing
statistically.

The sky is not falling, but a lot of people need to step it up if we're
going to have any safety margin.

-- 
       Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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