Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?

Franck Martin franck at genius.com
Sun Apr 18 19:08:23 CDT 2010


I'm looking at http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2Fvar%2Fdata%2Fbgp%2Fv6%2Fas2.0%2Fbgp-as-count.txt&descr=Unique+ASes&ylabel=Unique+ASes&range=Full&StartDate=&EndDate=&yrange=Auto&ymin=&ymax=&Width=1&Height=1&with=Step&color=auto&logscale=log 

I see the rate of grow is logarithmically linear since 2007 (well a bit better than that). 

And doing guess-o-matic extrapolation, it will take another 3 years before we reach 10,000 ASN advertising IPv6 networks. That will be 33% of ASN. With the impending running out of IPv4 starting next year, seems to me we are not going to make it in an orderly fashion? 

Anybody has better projections? What's the plan? 



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