[NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion

Joel Jaeggli joelja at bogus.com
Sat May 3 22:37:28 CDT 2008


William Warren wrote:
> That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by 
> organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.

which one's would those be?

legacy class A address space just isn't that big...

> Geoff Huston wrote:
>> Mike Leber wrote:
>>> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
>>> until IPv4 exhaustion:
>>>
>>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
>>  ....
>>
>>> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding.  Do people do
>>> that?
>>>
>>> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement.  :)
>>>
>>
>> I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play
>> out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's 
>> x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model
>> with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!
>>
>> IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address 
>> allocations are  relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively 
>> large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking
>> large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It
>> could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very
>> uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change
>> in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....
>>
>> So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to
>> the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ... 
>> but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years.
>>
>> regards,
>>
>>     Geoff
>>
>>
>>
>>
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> 





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