[Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

Fri Apr 18 20:38:28 UTC 2008

On Apr 18, 2008, at 4:15 PM, Scott Francis wrote:

> http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html
>
> I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat dubious
> (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) -
> although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as "in 3 years' time, 20
> typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet

Maybe if "typical household" is defined as "close relatives of Peter  
Lothberg."

Either that, or he meant 30 instead of 3.

Regards
Marshall

>
> today". Is there some secret plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical
> households" in the next 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't
> have accurate figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet"
> generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be generated
> by any single household regardless of equipment installed, torrents
> traded or videos downloaded. Even given a liberal application of
> Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the case in 2010 either.
>
> Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if
> they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from ATT engineering?
> Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers were
> tossed into the air without any mention of how they were derived. A
> cynical person might be tempted to think it was all a scare tactic to
> soften up legislators for the next wave of "reasonable network
> management" practices that just happen to have significant revenue
> streams attached to them ...
> -- 
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