[Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

Scott Francis darkuncle at gmail.com
Fri Apr 18 15:15:16 CDT 2008


http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html

I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat dubious
(working for a company that produces video for online distribution) -
although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as "in 3 years' time, 20
typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet
today". Is there some secret plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical
households" in the next 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't
have accurate figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet"
generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be generated
by any single household regardless of equipment installed, torrents
traded or videos downloaded. Even given a liberal application of
Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the case in 2010 either.

Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if
they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from ATT engineering?
Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers were
tossed into the air without any mention of how they were derived. A
cynical person might be tempted to think it was all a scare tactic to
soften up legislators for the next wave of "reasonable network
management" practices that just happen to have significant revenue
streams attached to them ...
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